Current Account to Record a Surplus in 2009 for the First Time since 1977
Inflationary pressures continue to remain subdued as reflected by the annual average inflation of around 4 per cent recorded by end November 2009, although year-on-year inflation increased to 2.8 per cent. The outlook for inflation remains benign. The development of the Northern and Eastern provinces in the period ahead would result in their increased integration with the rest of the country, leading to enhanced supply of goods and services in the country. The positive supply side developments expected to take place in the domestic economy are likely to have a favourable impact on inflation, going forward.
The higher reduction in expenditure on imports compared to the decline in earnings from exports has resulted in the trade deficit narrowing significantly during the first nine months of 2009. The overall deficits in the trade and income accounts were offset by higher inflows into the current transfers and services accounts, resulting in a surplus of US dollars 393 million in the current account for the first nine months of 2009. It is expected that this performance will continue through the fourth quarter as well and the current account would record a surplus in 2009 for the first time since 1977.
Prospects for domestic economic activity have improved with the more favourable investment climate that now prevails and the gradual recovery of the world economy, supported by the relaxed monetary policy stance of the Central Bank. Hence, it is expected that credit flows will gradually pick up, with the more favourable credit conditions that prevail on account of the decline in market interest rates as well as the more stable conditions in financial markets. Although broad money supply is likely to further expand, particularly in view of the expansion of foreign assets of the country and the likely pick up in credit flows to the private sector in the ensuing period, such an expansion has been accounted for in stipulating the monetary targets for this year as well as the next year.
Considering these developments the Monetary Board at its meeting on 11 December 2009 decided to maintain its policy interest rates at their current levels. Accordingly, the Repurchase rate and the Reverse Repurchase rate would remain at 7.50 per cent and 9.75 per cent, respectively.
The Road Map: Monetary and Financial Sector Policies for 2010 and beyond, to be announced on 4 January 2010, will enunciate the monetary policy strategy of the Bank for 2010.
The release of the next regular statement on monetary policy will be on 19 January 2010.
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